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Escalation and Innovation: Putin's Latest Moves in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Published December 01, 2024
2 months ago

Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent menacing rhetoric and actions continue to heighten tensions in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. On November 28, 2024, at a Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan, Putin boasted about the capabilities of the Oreshnik ballistic missile, which was employed in a strike against Dnipro City, Ukraine. This missile, described by Putin with hyperbolic comparisons to nuclear weapons and meteorites in terms of destructive potential, highlights Russia's continued escalation in military technology and tactics against Ukraine.





However, the claims about the Oreshnik's advanced capabilities have been met with skepticism. Both U.S. and Ukrainian defense officials have downplayed the missile's novelty and strategic impact, suggesting that Putin's statements are part of a broader "reflexive control" information campaign designed to intimidate Ukraine and deter Western military support.


Amidst these threats, the Russian military is also considering significant structural changes. On the same day, Putin acknowledged ongoing discussions within the Russian Ministry of Defense and General Staff about establishing a new service branch focused on unmanned systems. This move is likely a response to the operational successes enjoyed by Ukrainian unmanned systems and an effort to centralize and enhance Russian drone capabilities.


The potential establishment of this drone force aligns with previous efforts at restructuring, notably the "Rubikon" Center for Prospective Unmanned Technologies launched in August 2024. However, this initiative has faced criticism from within Russia's military blogging community, with concerns about the monopolization of drone resources and the integration of this new force with existing military operations.


This period also saw heightened military activities, with large-scale Russian drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and defense facilities. In contrast, Ukrainian forces successfully targeted Russian air defense systems and crucial fuel depots, showcasing ongoing resilience and strategic countermeasures against Russian aggression.


Furthermore, global military alliances and partnerships are also in flux, evidenced by Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov's unannounced visit to Pyongyang, North Korea. This visit underscores the deepening military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, aimed at reinforcing their strategic positions in the region.


As the conflict proceeds, these developments suggest a dual strategy by Russia: intensifying its military capabilities and restructuring its forces while seeking to expand and solidify international military alliances. Such maneuvers indicate not just a continuation but potentially an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with significant implications for regional and global security.


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