The Resurgence of Turkish Influence in Syria: Erdogan's Strategic Victory Amidst Assad's Fall

On December 9, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan heralded a new era for Syria, indicating a significant turn in the regional dynamics with the downfall of Bashar al-Assad's regime. Erdogan's statement comes after a surprising rebel advance from Idlib province toward Aleppo and ultimately toward Damascus, signaling a major shift in control facilitated significantly by Turkish support.

Turkey has long played a complex role in the Syrian conflict, oscillating between direct and indirect involvement. Erdogan’s claim that Syria represented a fragment of the Ottoman Empire has markedly shaped Ankara's foreign policy and its ambitions in the region. The Syrian National Army (SNA), an opposition force backed by Turkey, spearheaded the recent offensive using sophisticated Turkish-supplied weaponry including drones. The success of these operations underscores Turkey's strategic preparation and determination to assert its influence.

Erdogan’s vision for Syria, underpinned by the concept of 'neo-Ottomanism', seems to be coming to fruition. This ideology envisions a return to Turkey’s days of empire and has manifested in both domestic and foreign policy shifts since the Arab Spring began in 2011. Erdogan’s comments have frequently reflected a nostalgic reverence for Ottoman history, coupled with an assertive regional policy that suggests a desire to restore Turkey's sphere of influence across former Ottoman territories.

The Turkish president's response to the Assad regime illustrates a pragmatic approach to foreign affairs, where allegiance shifts in favor of larger strategic goals. While once allies, the bond between Erdogan and Assad soured with the escalation of civil conflict in Syria. Erdogan’s subsequent alignment with opposition forces and his critique of Assad underscores a calculated strategy to diminish Iranian and Russian influence in Syria.

The fall of Assad and the potential consolidation of power by forces friendly to Turkey could dramatically alter regional power dynamics. This development not only enhances Turkey’s geopolitical clout but may also serve to address internal challenges, notably the refugee crisis that Turkey has grappled with since the conflict’s onset.

Erdogan has, through various platforms, voiced his intention to visit Damascus and pray in the historic Umayyad Mosque—a statement symbolizing his anticipated victory and the realization of a long-held goal. This symbolic gesture would signify not just a personal triumph for Erdogan but a monumental achievement for his vision of Turkey’s place in the modern world.

As the situation in Syria evolves, the international community watches closely. Turkey's positioning and Erdogan's maneuvers will have lasting implications not only for Syria but for the broader Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape.