Shifting Sands: The Declining French Military Influence in Africa and the Rise of New Partnerships

The longstanding influence of France in Africa is undergoing a significant transformation, as seen in the unilateral decisions from Chad and Senegal to end or reshape military ties with France. This marks a potential end to post-colonial military dominance by France in the Sahel region, signaling a shift in geopolitical alignments on the continent.

Recently, Chad proclaimed its decision on Independence Day to terminate defense cooperation with France, aiming to reaffirm its sovereignty. This announcement was quickly followed by a statement from the newly elected president of Senegal, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, indicating a similar intent to remove French troops from Senegalese soil, citing a historical context that no longer justified their presence.

These developments coincide with French efforts to recalibrate its role in Africa amidst growing competition from nations like Russia and the UAE. The current French administration under President Emmanuel Macron has been attempting to reform France's partnerships with African nations since 2017, emphasizing a reduced and more targeted military presence excluding Djibouti in the Horn of Africa.

France's military strategy, as yet not publicly detailed, reportedly involves responding more closely to the specific defense needs of African countries rather than maintaining large, permanent military bases. This approach may include providing specialized training in areas such as aerospace surveillance and deploying troops on a temporary basis only.

Despite these intentions, the perception of French military involvement in Africa has often been marred by controversies over the continued presence of troops and their role in local political dynamics. The legacy of Françafrique—the term used to describe France’s pervasive influence over its former colonies—has been increasingly viewed as an overhang from a colonial past, leading to calls within several countries for a complete overhaul of bilateral relationships.

The move by Chad and Senegal to expel French troops is not isolated. In recent years, Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, led by military governments, have also terminated their military cooperations with France amidst rising anti-French sentiments and burgeoning street protests across the region. These countries are exploring new security alliances, notably turning towards Russia, which has expanded its military presence through the Wagner Group, and the UAE, which has been strengthening its geopolitical foothold in the Sahel.

While the French Ministry of Defense argues that the primary role of French troops in Africa is to assist in peacekeeping and counter-extremism efforts, critics argue that France’s military footprint also serves to perpetuate its geopolitical influence and secure regimes that favor French interests.

As this geopolitical drama unfolds, the consequences on regional security remain uncertain with increasing violence and insecurity noted in countries that have ousted French military support. The vacuum left by France poses serious challenges, especially as new actors like Russia have not demonstrated capacity to restore stability in these regions.

This pivot away from France reflects a broader realignment in global geopolitics, where traditional powers are contending with emerging players, leading to a dynamic and complex interplay of influences in Africa.