South Africa Remains Engaged in Syria Amid New Power Dynamics

As the dust settles over the weekend coup that ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, South Africa’s presence in Damascus remains unshaken, with its ambassador and embassy staff staying put despite the dramatic shift in control to the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led insurgents early on December 8.

Amidst the chaos, South Africa’s Ambassador Ashraf Suliman’s decision to remain in Syria signals a cautious but observant approach from Pretoria towards the new regime, despite its prior connections to Al-Qaeda as Jabhat al-Nusra before rebranding to HTS in 2016. The South African government has been in regular contact with Suliman, who has confirmed the safety of himself and his staff, according to Chrispin Phiri, spokesperson for International Relations and Cooperation Minister Ronald Lamola.

This decision comes in the backdrop of a broader geopolitical shake-up, with repercussions not just for Syria but for its key allies as well. The fall of Assad marks a significant strategic loss for Russia, which has been a robust supporter of the Assad regime since 2015. This shift might jeopardize Russian military bases in Syria, critical for projecting power in both the Middle East and the Mediterranean.

For Iran, another long-time ally of Assad, the regime's collapse disrupts a crucial conduit for arming Hezbollah in Lebanon, potentially weakening Iran's geopolitical stance in the region.

South Africa’s involvement and its continued diplomatic presence in Syria are profound, echoing its previous policies and alliances. Despite the UN labeling HTS as a terrorist organization, Pretoria's course remains consistent with its past actions where it often opposed Western-led resolutions against Assad's regime. These stances have been part of a broader pattern where South Africa, at times, has sided with "perpetrators" over "victims" of human rights abuses in its voting at international bodies.

The Democratic Alliance in South Africa conveyed concern over the developments, seeing both risks and opportunities in Assad’s exit. Emma Powell, the DA’s spokesperson for International Relations and Cooperation, underscored the potential for peace and reconstruction efforts led by the UN’s special envoy to Syria, emphasizing the importance of inclusive dialogue among all Syrian factions to avoid further civilian strife and extended conflict.

On the ground in Syria, the power vacuum has catalyzed movements by other groups such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), each looking to expand their influence. This adds layers to an already complex battlefield where various groups with differing agendas and allegiances vie for control.

The situation presents an intricate challenge for South Africa and the international community, as they navigate these new power dynamics in a historically volatile region. The outcomes will likely influence regional stability and the humanitarian situation in Syria for years to come.