ANC Retains Control amid Surging PA in Eastern Cape By-Elections

The political landscape of the Eastern Cape experienced a tremor as the Patriotic Alliance (PA) emerged as a significant contender in the recent by-elections, challenging the traditional dominance of the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA).

Kou-Kamma, an idyllic region known for its farming community and scenic surroundings such as the Tsitsikamma mountains and Langkloof, became the electoral battleground where the ANC managed to retain control despite a noticeable dent in its support base, particularly in Misgund, Krakeel River, and Louterwater. The PA's significant progress illustrated a change in political attitudes, as the party finished a strong second, shaking the foundations of both established parties.

In the previous local government elections of 2021, the ANC held a comfortable lead over the DA in the region. The recently held by-elections, however, saw a different narrative unfolding. The ANC managed to keep its lead by a margin of over 300 votes, yet the PA's breakthrough was the talk of the town as it climbed from 6% to 44% in the vote share, significantly impacting the ANC's and the DA's numbers.

Notably, in Louterwater, the PA's rise to 80% of the vote, up from a mere 9% previously, delineated an astonishing rise and marked the PA as a formidable force to be reckoned with in future elections. While the ANC continues to hold Kou-Kamma, this development has sparked a sense of urgency for both the ANC and the DA to rethink their strategies.

The DA, on the other hand, experienced a sweeping victory in the coastal wards of Nelson Mandela Bay, including the famous beaches of King’s Beach, Pollok Beach, and Hobie Beach. Despite their success here and in the suburban ward west of the Gqeberha city centre, where landmarks like Hoërskool Framesby are situated, the party's stronghold saw some concessions with the PA pulling some DA votes.

In the more rural setting of Ward 18, northwest of Gcuwa, as well as Ward 12, off the R61 regional road, the ANC maintained overpowering victories despite the unfortunate murder of a ward councillor before the elections. Such triumphs underscore the enduring support for the ANC in these areas, with the EFF and ACT unable to make significant inroads.

In the Vhembe District's Ward 35, amid the grandeur of the Soutpansberg mountains, the political scene held steady with the ANC triumphing over the IRC and independent candidates to command an overwhelming majority.

The locally dynamic electoral yields indicate a political spectrum in evolution, with the ANC maintaining its bastion in traditional strongholds, while simultaneously experiencing pressure from burgeoning parties like the PA which are increasingly gaining the community's favor.

The upcoming by-elections in August across several provinces, including Gauteng, the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, North West, and the Free State, are poised to offer further insights into the shifting sands of South African regional politics. The ANC, DA, and now the PA face the task of adapting to these new political dynamics.