Decline in South African Service Delivery Protests Tied to Stabilizing Power Grid

According to a comprehensive analysis by Municipal IQ, April 2023 saw all service delivery protests in South Africa being instigated by electricity blackouts and water shortages. However, the research company, known for its close monitoring of service delivery protests, has noted a remarkable decline in those specifically caused by power and water woes, which represented just 24% in May 2024.

During the election voting period from May 26 to 29, 2024, protests peaked, driven by grievances surrounding service delivery, with almost half the unrest election-related. In particular, the Eastern Cape was a hotbed for such demonstrations, where affected communities attempted to disrupt the voting process as a form of protest against inadequate municipal services. Despite this, as load shedding, a significant contributor to service disruption, subsided, the overall number of protests is expected to follow suit.

This potential for decreased activism follows the trend that service delivery protests are traditionally lower in the latter half of the year. With Eskom showing improved performance metrics and a reduction in power outages not seen as a mere appeasement during elections, the connection between load shedding and protests seems evident. The efforts to install solar panels across businesses and households have also contributed to a more stable electricity supply, hinting at a sustainable improvement.

Yet, challenges persist. Water scarcity and other forms of service delivery failures remain potential catalysts for future protests. In addition, socio-economic inequalities and high unemployment rates keep the nation on edge. While tackling these issues, the collective hope lies with the government of national unity to address the underlying causes of state failure and guide South Africa toward a revitalized economy.

Municipal IQ’s data suggest a significant reduction in service delivery protests is on the horizon, largely attributed to the reduction in load shedding. As the country moves towards warmer months with anticipated early spring, the demand on the national power grid may further decrease, alleviating one of the main inciters of civic unrest in recent years.