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China's recent decision to suspend nuclear non-profiltration and arms control negotiations has sent ripples of concern through the international community. The pause in diplomacy traces back to ongoing arms sales from the United States to Taiwan, a move Beijing deems as undermining the conditions necessary for such high-stakes conversations. This development casts a long shadow on the efforts to maintain global arms control and manage strategic risks associated with nuclear weapons.
In November, discussions began between China and the US with the intention of diminishing mistrust and paving the way for a summit involving President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden. These talks were part of a broader strategic engagement aimed at risk reduction amidst rising geopolitical tensions. However, the dialogue hit a rough patch when in January, a White House official prompted China to reciprocate on substantive risk reduction proposals.
The halt in discourse was announced by Lin Jian, a Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson, during a press briefing. According to Lin, the path forward calls for respect for China's core interests as the bedrock for any future dialogue. Beijing holds steadfast to its claim over Taiwan, which significantly influences its foreign policy and international negotiations.
The sale of arms to Taiwan has been a historical point of contention between the US and China. Although the US formally recognized Beijing over Taipei in 1979, it has continued to be Taiwan's most significant partner and arms supplier. Recent developments have seen Washington approve military sales to Taiwan, leading to increased skyward and seaborate activity by Chinese forces near the island, and exacerbating tensions.
The US has criticized China's move, with State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller highlighting that this decision may provoke arm-race dynamics and jeopardize strategic stability. The Biden Administration's approach to 'compartmentalizing' such issues has not found favor with the Chinese government.
This impasse comes amid the US expressing concerns over escalating threats from Chinese and Russian nuclear arsenals. The tripartite nations, as signatories of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), bear the legal responsibility to engage in disarmament dialogues. Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association underscores the gravity of this suspension, emphasizing the necessity of continued dialogue to prevent a potential arms race.
As the situation unfolds, US officials have expressed dismay over China's reticence to discuss nuclear risks, while Beijing counters with concerns about the disproportional size of the US's nuclear arsenal. At this point, around 3,700 nuclear warheads constitute the US stockpile, compared to China's operational count of 500, a number that's predicted to double by 2030.
The halting of these crucial talks not only symbolizes a stumbling block for arms control but also raises questions about the bilateral capacity to manage disputes without reverting to escalation. The international community watches on as two of the world's nuclear powers grapple with their diplomatic strategies amidst growing global complexities.