Brenthurst Foundation Forecasts ANC's Declined Majority in 2024, with Rising Support for Opposition

A significant shift in political allegiances may be underway in South Africa according to a comprehensive survey conducted by the Brenthurst Foundation and the SABI Strategy Group. The nationally representative telephonic survey, which took the pulse of registered voters between February 12 and 28, forecasted that the ruling African National Congress (ANC) is set to receive 39% of the vote in the coming 2024 General Election. In what could be seen as a political upheaval, the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) is predicted to solidify its support to 27%, while the new MK party, founded by former President Jacob Zuma, is set to make a notable entrance with 13% of the vote.

The survey indicates a decline for the ANC, historically the dominant force in South African politics, and highlights the growing fragmentation of the country's political landscape. Additionally, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) are expected to garner around 10% of the vote.

A notable aspect of the survey is the apparent public approval of coalitions to govern the nation, with over three-quarters of respondents expressing contentment with coalition-led governance. Significantly, the Multi-Party Charter (MPC)—a coalition encompassing parties like the DA, IFP, Action SA, the Freedom Front Plus (FF+), and the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP)—is preferred, collectively anticipated to gain 33% of the vote.

South African foreign policy preferences are also undergoing changes, according to the survey results. The majority of respondents lean towards alignment with the West and other democratic nations over the BRICS group of emerging economies. In the context of international conflicts, the ANC's positions are causing some internal strife among voters, with a quarter indicating that the party's response to the Russia/Ukraine conflict dampens their support, and 23% expressing similar sentiments regarding the stance on the Israel/Hamas situation.

In aligning with government coalition perspectives, voters expressed varying degrees of support for potential coalitions. While 29% endorsed the MPC coalition, 25% would support an ANC-DA coalition, and 24% favored an ANC-EFF partnership. After the MMC's inception, 26% of respondents felt inclined to support an opposition party.

Dr. Greg Mills, Director of the Brenthurst Foundation, reflected on the findings, stating, "South Africa’s political environment has been substantially shaken up and the old assumptions are no longer true." He emphasized the positive impact of a competitive opposition on democracy, policy-making, service delivery, and accountability. Mills' comment underscores a clear tendency towards a more balanced and multiparty political future for South Africa, as indicated by the survey.

The full survey and analysis conducted by the Brenthurst Foundation provide a crucial insight into the evolving dynamics of South African politics, hinting at a substantial decline in one-party dominance and a transition toward a landscape more reflective of a diverse electorate’s aspirations.