Disinformation and the High Stakes: The Role of Anti-Immigrant Sentiments in South African Elections

The Centre for Analytics and Behavioural Change (CABC), a South African non-profit organization, has issued a stark warning about the potential impact of disinformation on the country's upcoming elections, particularly concerning anti-immigrant sentiments. Such disinformation, according to the CABC, could not only sway the minds of voters but also incite xenophobic violence, a grim scenario South Africa has witnessed in the past.

The seriousness of the issue is underscored by disturbing statistics presented by the CABC. Between November 1, 2023, and January 10, 2024, around 609,738 online conversations regarding immigrants in South Africa were logged on platforms such as Twitter. In the past year alone, immigrants have been the topic of discussion more than 2.9 million times online, a sign of the high level of public engagement—and potential misinformation—on the subject.

Analysts at the CABC have kept their identities confidential, citing concerns about potential victimization—a clear indication of the sensitive nature of the issue. They’re demanding a heightened vigilance from South Africans, stating that political parties are increasingly leveraging xenophobic sentiments to push false promises of employment and safety.

Notably, the data reveals an average of 7.5 mentions per account about immigrants during a two-and-a-half-month period, signifying intense participation on the topic. These discussions have veered towards a range of interconnected subjects, from xenophobia and tribal tensions to border control and illegal documentation sales.

Key social media handles that frequently feature in these controversial discussions are from political figures like Gayton McKenzie of the Patriotic Alliance and satire accounts that stir the political pot. Also entangled are the official pages of major political parties, including the ANC, EFF, and prominent movements focused on curtailing immigration such as Operation Dudula and Put South Africa First.

Analyzing the conversations points to a skewed representation amongst political parties in these online discussions. The ANC dominates with the most mentions, followed by immigrant-focused groups like Operation Dudula and Put South Africa First, and political parties like ActionSA.

Hashtags play a pivotal role in these discourses, with #operationdudula and #putsouthafricansfirst leading the charge. The conversation is often centered on protest against illegal immigration, claims of authority complicity, and calls for prioritizing South African citizens over immigrants.

The CABC's analysis suggests that xenophobic rhetoric is not just an online phenomenon. Incidents like the Patriotic Alliance’s actions at the Beitbridge Border that went viral exemplify how such sentiments can spill over into real-world confrontations and movements.

The report implores South African voters to stay informed and vigilant, to evaluate the credibility of political narratives critically, and to consider the broader societal implications of their electoral decisions. It underlines the importance of protecting democracy from the dangerous undercurrents of disinformation and xenophobia, which threaten to erode both the social fabric and the integrity of the electoral process in South Africa.