Intensifying Struggles: Russia Amplifies Use of Unguided Bombs, Missiles, and Drones in Ukraine Conflict

Amid an escalating Ukraine conflict, Russia is pivoting towards an increased production and deployment of unguided bombs, such as glide bombs and ballistic missiles, as well as drones. This strategy shift comes as Ukraine has been targeting Russian military installations and exerting pressure on Russian forces from a distance.

In an unsettling pattern since December 29, Russia has unleashed near-daily salvos of drones and missiles in probing assaults designed to exploit vulnerabilities in Ukraine's defense systems. Notably, on a single day, Ukraine's air defense was only able to intercept 18 out of 51 incoming missiles, a drop from their usual successful interception rates. These instances of breakthrough led to outright civilian causalities, as experienced in the regions of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, and Khmelnytskyi.

The increased rate of missile penetration is attributed to Russia's deployment of Iskander and Kinzhal ballistic missiles, which have daunting terminal speeds that challenge interception efforts. Their immunity to electronic warfare further complicates defense systems that rely on jamming GPS guidance. The Ukrainian Air Force acknowledged these factors while noting that the incoming ballistic trajectories also spanned areas where Ukrainian capabilities were limited.

Moreover, the Institute for the Study of War has pointed out that the limited interception of ballistic missiles, compared to cruise missiles, indicates a potential vulnerability in Ukraine's anti-missile defense posture. Despite the impressive rates of intercepting cruise missiles, the Ukrainian forces have found it more challenging to counteract the ballistic threats from Russia.

Given production constraints, Russia maintains only a limited capacity to produce the advanced Iskander and Kinzhal missiles. Nonetheless, alliances with nations such as Iran and North Korea are being forged to buttress its arsenal, with recent acknowledgments from the US and Ukraine confirming the use of North Korean ballistic missiles in the conflict. This collaboration is drawing international consternation, as it potentially broadens security threats not just in Europe but on a global scale.

Amidst these developments, Russia is also turning an eye to glide bombs, which are cheaper than guided missiles and also resistant to jamming techniques. Although these bombs necessitate aircraft to approach relatively close to their targets, Russia deems them a burgeoning success and plans to introduce an enhanced version—the Drel glide bombs—into service within the year.

Complementing these systems, Russia's commitment to expanding its drone production portends an influx of aerial surveillance and unmanned assault capabilities that could strain Ukraine's aerial defense infrastructure. The anticipation of significantly increased drone production figures signals an intent to flood the skies with remotely piloted aerial threats.

On the other side, Ukraine is not merely on the defensive. It has engaged in proactive strikes against Russian military sites, particularly in Crimea. Successes in attacking radar positions, command posts, and supply lines have demonstrated Ukraine's resolve and ability to reach into Russian-held territories.

Nonetheless, these actions come at a significant cost. The consumption of anti-air defenses during a series of heavy assaults underscores the urgency of reinforcing these capabilities. NATO's procurement ambitions, including the development of a Patriot missile production facility in Germany, hint at a recognition of the need to bolster defenses, though it remains unseen how much of this support will extend directly to Ukraine.

The situation on the ground remains fluid and fraught with perils for both sides. As Russia pushes forward with its renewed strategic emphasis on less sophisticated but challenging-to-counter weapons systems, Ukraine persists in leveraging both high-tech military assets and creative solutions to defend its sovereignty. The dynamic conflict continues to test the limits of military innovation and international diplomacy alike.