The Covert Influence: Beijing's Ploys in Taiwan’s Upcoming Elections

The political landscape of Taiwan is facing an unprecedented challenge from Beijing as the self-ruled island prepares for its presidential and legislative elections on January 13. A multi-pronged strategy by Beijing is unfolding, with Chinese efforts crossing into realms that range from intimidating individual voters to influencing political narratives through suspected disinformation campaigns, aiming to prevent the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) from securing re-election.

Cynthia Iunn, a Taiwanese NGO worker, experienced an unnerving taste of this strategy firsthand. After purchasing a book critical of China's potential military aggression, she received a series of mystifying phone calls from self-professed Taiwanese individuals—one of whom knew specific details about her recent purchase and warned her against the DPP. This unsettling practice is indicative of China's cognitive warfare explicitly designed to dissuade voters from supporting the DPP, favoring instead the Kuomintang (KMT) party that endorses closer ties with Beijing.

Under the guise of maintaining peace and avoiding conflict, Beijing's campaign has been both direct and covert, leaving an unignorable footprint on Taiwan's political scene. Chinese officials have not shied from vocalizing a distinct preference for the KMT and eschewing dialogue with President Tsai Ing-wen's administration since 2016, branding it as separatist. The CCP's tactics include forgoing formal diplomatic communications in favor of influencing local Taiwanese authorities and promoting pro-China agendas at a municipal level.

A concerning aspect of these influences is evidence suggesting that trips by Taiwanese individuals to China—trips which have sharply risen in number—may have been bankrolled by Beijing. This raises questions about the depth and extent of Chinese state interference in Taiwan's domestic affairs. The exemption of certain Taiwanese exports from China's import bans, conveniently facilitated after visits from KMT representatives, further cements Beijing's preference.

Prominent figures in Taiwan have also found themselves entangled in China's web of influence. Tech giant Foxconn was suddenly caught in a tax investigation following its founder, now an independent presidential candidate, Terry Gou's opposition to the DPP. Similarly, probes into “Taiwan’s trade barriers against China” were strategically extended right up to the eve of the election.

The terrain of cyberspace has become a battlefield, with Google reporting a surge in Chinese cyberattacks targeting Taiwan’s defense, industry, and government sectors. Meta's dismantling of a far-reaching Chinese influence campaign underscores the efforts to infiltrate social media narratives. Meanwhile, TikTok has emerged as a double-edged sword—a medium for disseminating disinformation as well as a tool to potentially monitor user behavior.

Some elements of these campaigns are implemented under the guise of authentic Taiwanese opinions, utilizing locals such as journalists and influencers to perpetuate Chinese narratives subtly. Ai-Men Lau from Doublethink Lab sheds light on this alarming trend, raising concerns about the resulting social polarization and the eventual weakening of Taiwanese society and its resistance to China's aspirations of annexation.

This onslaught of influence and interference, coordinated by top CCP leaders, reveals a profound determination to steer the Taiwanese elections in a favorable direction. The methods may have evolved, becoming more covert and sophisticated, but the underlying intent remains clear—undermining the DPP government and tilting the electorate towards pro-Beijing sentiments. The true depth and consequences of these interventions are yet to be revealed post-election, but as Taiwanese voters like Iunn attest, the resolve of Beijing to mold Taiwan's political future is only growing stronger.