Rising Nuclear Tensions as Putin Signals No Thaw in US Relations

The pledge for another term by Russian President Vladimir Putin has significant implications for global security, particularly in the realm of nuclear arms control. The continuing power grip of Putin, who recently presided over a flag-raising for two new submarines, coupled with the looming expiration of the New START treaty, paints a grim picture for US-Russia relations.

Putin's declarations about Russia's advanced nuclear arsenal, including the ability to deploy nuclear-capable Bulava intercontinental ballistic missiles, accompanied by his resistance to a more aggressive nuclear stance, notwithstanding placing forces on heightened alert, have heightened the stakes in this geopolitical chess game.

Despite pulling out of a key nuclear test ban treaty, Russia maintains it won't test nuclear weapons unless provoked by the US. This precarious scenario is exacerbated by the Kremlin's stance that its nuclear capabilities are deterrence against Western intervention in Ukraine.

Analysts underscore that Putin's reliance on the nuclear threat has grown as Russia's conventional war efforts in Ukraine stumble and sanctions chip away at its economic leverage based on energy dependency. The question remains: how can one negotiate the reduction of nuclear risks while actively wielding them as geopolitical threats?

As Putin stands poised for another term, the New START treaty's deadline fast approaches, with an increasingly dim horizon for its renewal or a new agreement. Amidst China's nuclear advancements and uncertain American leadership in the future, the obstacles to non-proliferation efforts multiply.

Russia's suspension of New START participation came with an ultimatum: dialogue would only resume if the US abandoned its support for Ukraine, which is improbable considering President Biden's firm position. Moscow argues that it can withstand a new arms race, referencing cheaper R&D costs and a resilient economy, in contrast with the Soviet era.

Nevertheless, experts like Nigel Gould-Davies of the International Institute for Strategic Studies caution that a full-fledged nuclear arms race would strain Russia, as sanctions impede access to crucial technology, leading to setbacks like the failed moon-landing mission.

As we edge nearer to the New START treaty's expiration, the room for maneuver narrows. The rhetoric from both Washington and Moscow suggests we're spiraling towards a competitive arms buildup focused on qualitative supremacy rather than sheer numbers, portending a less stable global order and bleak prospects for arms control—or so the analysis goes.