Chad's Contested Constitutional Change: A Bid for Legitimacy or a Mask for Dynasty?

In Chad, a country grappling with the challenges of a transition from military to civilian rule, the stage is set for a critical referendum on December 17 that would determine the future of a new constitution. This political event marks a significant moment for the Sahel nation, as it seeks to chart a course towards democratic governance while contending with the shadow of a ruling dynasty that has presided over the country for three decades.

In the lead-up to the referendum, the transitional government, led by General Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno, has embarked on a campaign to secure a "Yes" vote. The nation’s leaders are framing this as a crucial step toward civilian rule and free elections, while some opposition parties and civil society groups cry foul, decrying the process as a veiled attempt to perpetuate the Itno family's grip on power.

The current political climate in Chad is rooted in the dramatic shift that occurred on April 20, 2021, when a military junta took power following the death of President Idriss Deby Itno, who was killed while leading troops against insurgents. His son, General Mahamat Deby, then just 37, assumed the presidency with the pledge of an 18-month transition to civilian leadership and the promise of "free" elections. However, as the initial transition period came to an end, Deby reneged on his vow and extended the junta’s rule by an additional two years, also altering his stance to allow for his potential candidacy in forthcoming elections.

Chad's political opposition, including figures who have felt compelled to flee the country, have dubbed the referendum a "masquerade," orchestrated to maintain the status quo. A number of opposition groups and prominent leaders, including those who have formed the Consultation Group of Political Actors (GCAP), have called for a boycott. They argue that the proposed constitutional changes serve only to fortify the Deby lineage's control and have little to do with the decentralization of power or democratic reforms.

The Chadian government has defended the referendum as a necessary precursor to elections that would ultimately lead to a democratic government. Prime Minister Saleh Kebzazo leads the pro-junta "Yes" coalition’s campaign, advocating for a highly decentralized unitary state. However, opponents advocate a federal model, believing that it would provide a more balanced distribution of power.

Moreover, an amnesty law, passed ahead of the referendum, has been heavily critiqued by the opposition as a move to shield security forces from accountability for the harsh crackdown on mass protests. The demonstrations, which occurred last October, saw a severe response from the security forces, with death toll claims varying from approximately 50, as per government figures, to up to 300, according to opposition and NGOs.

Human Rights Watch has expressed concern about the lead-up to the referendum, highlighting the intimidation and constraints faced by the opposition. The rights group stresses that for the referendum to be perceived as credible, dissenting voices must be free to mobilize and campaign.

This referendum comes at a time when Chad is marked by significant divisions along geographical, religious, and socio-political lines. It remains one of the least developed countries globally, with pervasive perceptions of corruption—an environment in which the promise of a shift from military to democratic rule is not simply procedural but carries immense implications for the country's trajectory.

In a nation where mistrust in political processes is endemic and where the legitimacy of governance structures is continuously questioned, the December referendum in Chad is more than a procedural step; it is a litmus test for the country's democratic aspirations and the possibility of breaking free from the shadow of a dynasty.