ANC Faces Grim Prospects as Branch Disillusionment and Declining Support Loom Over 2024 Elections

The African National Congress (ANC), South Africa's ruling party, confronts an uncertain future as internal reports and public opinion polls signal possible erosion in the party's foundational support. The electoral committee, led by former president Kgalema Motlanthe, presented findings to the ANC's national executive committee (NEC), revealing a grim forecast for the upcoming 2024 elections.

According to the Sunday Times, this internal report highlighted disconcerting trends within the ANC, most notably the high proportion of inactive party branches. A staggering 30% plus of ANC branches did not participate in nominating candidates for the impending elections, signaling widespread disenchantment at the grassroots level. From the previous 3,942 branches, only 2,533 submitted candidate lists—a drop that could significantly impact the ANC's voter mobilization efforts.

The branches are the lifeblood of the ANC, serving as the primary vehicle for voter engagement and the promotion of party policies at the community level. The lack of activity implies a weakening connection between the party and its traditional base, which may lead to an apathetic electorate, further dwindling the ANC's vote bank.

Prominent ANC figures, such as Human Settlements Minister Mmamoloko Kubayi, expressed alarm at the implications of these findings and urged leaders to devise strategies to revitalize the party's election campaign. During the NEC meeting, former Limpopo education MEC Polly Boshielo echoed these sentiments, stating that party volunteers and supporters are distancing themselves from the ANC—an indication that the party could no longer take its electorate for granted.

Adding to the party's concern, recent opinion surveys predict that the ANC could, for the first time since the end of apartheid, witness its public support fall below the 50% mark in the 2024 national elections. Moreover, a report by the Brenthurst Foundation, in partnership with the SABI Strategy Group, showed a steady decline in ANC backing, plummeting from 48% in November 2022 to 41% in October 2023. The public's apprehension over issues like unemployment, pervasive corruption, and frequent load shedding contributed to this decline in support.

The Social Research Foundation also dealt a blow with its report showing a higher public favorability for former president Thabo Mbeki over current president Cyril Ramaphosa. Such perceptions, fueled by recollections of past leadership versus the present, could influence voter behavior and reflect a longing for a bygone era of governance within some segments of the population.

The confluence of these internal and external reports presents a daunting landscape for the ANC as it approaches a critical juncture in South African politics. The party's once unequivocal dominance over the political landscape seems to be faltering under the weight of internal strife and public discontent.

As alarm bells sound within the ANC, there's an evident need for reflection and action to rekindle its historical allure and reconnect with a disenchanted electorate. Whether the ANC can navigate through these tumultuous waters and emerge with renewed vigor or it succumbs to the growing disillusionment will be a definitive aspect of South African politics in the upcoming election cycle.