Declining ANC Support Faces Potential Unseating in South Africa's Upcoming Elections

The African National Congress (ANC), South Africa's ruling party since the termination of apartheid in 1994, is currently supported by only 45% of voters, which suggests a potential loss of majority in the approaching general elections, due between May and August 2024, as per a recent poll.

The ANC, primarily moulded by Nelson Mandela to lead the fight against the former segregationist regime, appears to be in a significant decline, having experienced a dip in support from 52% in March to 45% in October according to the poll by the Social Research Foundation (SRF). The survey, involving a representative sample of 1,412 registered voters, shows a decrease in the party’s popularity, which was dominating South African politics since the democratic elections in 1994, led by the anti-apartheid icon, Nelson Mandela.

Simultaneously, the ANC, with its reputation marred by corruption, nepotism, and a declining economic performance, is steadily losing ground to the leading opposition party, the centrist Democratic Alliance (DA), which has been gaining momentum, as per the same SRF poll.

RSF’s poll further indicates escaping support for the ANC, and a correlated rise for the DA, hinting towards a challenging election ahead. Also showing promise is the radical left EFF, the second opposition party, capturing 9% of the voting intentions.

To retain power, political analysts speculate that the ANC may succumb to forming a coalition, as the opposition parties aim to overthrow the long-standing majority party.