The Strategic Importance of Lifting Restrictions on Ukrainian Strikes in Russia

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has scrutinized the potential impacts on the war in Ukraine if long-range strikes within Russia were permitted using Western-provided weapons. According to ISW, Ukrainian capabilities to target Russian military infrastructure are currently underutilized due to the United States' restrictions on the employment of ATACMS missiles, which could significantly debilitate Russian military capabilities.

ISW reports suggest that Ukraine's use of longer-range weapons such as ATACMS could help debilitate the logistical and command structures supporting Russian operations. The redeployment of Russian air assets away from the frontline and into deeper territory—initiated to avoid the reach of Ukrainian strikes—reflects a potential change in the Russian military posture that a lifting of restrictions could exploit.

Currently, only 20 of the 250 military and paramilitary targets within Russia that could potentially be struck by ATACMS missiles are permitted to be targeted by US-provided HIMARS missiles, and this limitation primarily excludes vast Russian rear areas that support the country's continued aggression in Ukraine. The ISW highlights that many of these rear facilities are hard to rapidly move or protect, such as large military bases and logistics centers that have remained static and vulnerable.

Although reports suggest a decreased use of Russian aviation in the theater, verifying the extent of redeployment from all facilities is challenging. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian ability to generate operational pressure through strategic strikes without even targeting all possible military and paramilitary objectives could force Russia to reconfigure its defensive strategies significantly.

The ISW underscores the success of Ukrainian long-range strikes, using domestically produced precision weapons, on Russian logistics and command structures in occupied territories. The Ukrainian strikes have coerced the Russian forces to disperse their assets and introduce inefficiencies in their logistics—a tactical advantage for Ukraine that could be marked up considerably by changes in restrictions on Western-provided weapons.

Further bolstering their case, ISW notes that Ukrainian forces have managed to develop a deep-strike capability, primarily through strike drones and modified anti-ship missiles. Recent Ukrainian operations in Russian territories evidenced by the ability to hit targets in the ATACMS range suggest an imperative need for strikes that could be facilitated by a lifting of US restrictions.

In light of these assessments, potential changes in US policy regarding the use of long-range weapons could precipitate a strategic shift in the war. Ukraine, by capitalizing on such amendments, could pose a more critical threat to Russian operations both in occupied territories and within Russia, forcing a reconfiguration of Russian military logistics and potentially altering the trajectory of the war.