Stats SA Stands by Census 2022 Despite Withheld Data Spurring Critical Scrutiny

In the wake of Stats SA's decision to withhold key supplementary data from Census 2022, the agency faced the challenge of defending the census's integrity. The data, crucial for researchers and policymakers, is typically used to inform government departments for effective service delivery. The incomplete release has led to concerns among demographers about the census's reliability.

Conducted in February 2022 amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, this national census had its complete data officially released in October 2023. Despite costing taxpayers R2.3 billion, Stats SA refrained from releasing figures on mortality, fertility, employment, and household income, following the counsel of technical experts.

Solly Molayi, Stats SA's acting deputy-director general for population and social statistics, in an interview with Daily Maverick, justified the decision as a common practice among statisticians who identify reporting and coverage biases. Molayi stressed the importance of publishing quality-assured data.

Stats SA's choice to delay the release was based on a lower response rate to questionnaires during door-to-door surveys. They emphasized that premature dissemination of data could mislead the public by presenting an incomplete portrait of societal trends.

As a temporary measure, Stats SA has pointed those in need of the withheld data towards its mid-year population estimates and other recurring surveys, like the yearly Income and Expenditure Survey and the Quarterly Labour Force Survey.

However, notable criticism comes from University of Cape Town (UCT) demographers Rob Dorrington and Tom Moultrie, who expressed doubts regarding the census's fitness for purpose. They expounded on a significant undercount, 31% compared to 2011's 14% undercount. They urged for an in-depth analysis of the 2022 census's shortcomings before the next census scheduled for 2031.

Stats SA acknowledged the 31% undercount, which was unveiled during their post-census evaluations. Molayi pointed out the unprecedented nature of the COVID-19 pandemic as a complicating factor in the census execution and stressed the unfairness of criticisms based on demographic models that do not engage directly with household surveying.

Despite the setbacks, there are no plans to redo the census. Molayi echoed a firm stance that the undercount does not invalidate the census as a whole. The agency vows to refine its data and aims to delineate trends in the withheld areas at both national and municipal levels.

The discussion around Census 2022 not only highlights the complexities of collecting accurate data during a global health crisis but also underscores the critical role such information plays in shaping a country's policy and resource distribution. With a firm rejection of discarding the data, Stats SA remains committed to its validity while acknowledging the learning curve presented by the pandemic.