Stats SA Stands Firm on Census 2022 Credibility Amidst Release of Data and Criticism

Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) has steadfastly defended the credibility of its Census 2022 results following academic calls for a recount. Despite the decision to withhold key supplemental data – mortality, fertility, employment, and household income – due to data quality concerns, Stats SA insists on the reliability of the figures released, emphasizing the rigorous processes undertaken to ensure accuracy.

The Census 2022, carried out in February 2022 amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, revealed a substantial undercount of 31%, as admitted by Stats SA. This undercount was significantly higher than the 14% seen in the 2011 Census, provoking notable unease within the academic community. University of Cape Town demographers Rob Dorrington and Tom Moultrie stressed the importance of scrutinizing the census process to establish a clear understanding of the discrepancies before the next decadal count.

Stats SA's position, articulated by acting deputy-director general Solly Molayi, points out the complexity and challenges of conducting a nationwide census during a pandemic. Molayi emphasizes that non-release of certain data stems from a commitment to provide stakeholders with the most accurate information by avoiding data that might mislead due to incomplete responses.

Addressing the concerns regarding the withheld data, the agency has directed researchers and policymakers to alternate sources – such as mid-year population estimates and the Quarterly Labour Force Survey – to glean insights into the key demographic and economic trends.

Despite the concerns raised, Stats SA is not considering redoing the census. According to Molayi, while there are recognized limitations to data collection methods, the bulk of the census data remains robust, covering critical areas like access to water, education, migration trends, and disability demographics. These provide a sturdy foundation for government and service departments, allowing for informed decision-making and appropriate allocation of taxpayer funds.

The agency plans to continue refining and eventually release the withheld data at the national and municipal levels, ensuring that the information meets their quality standards before becoming publicly available.

The nuances of the debate between Stats SA officials and critics underscore the paramount importance of accurate and complete census data in shaping South Africa's policy and research landscape. The outcomes from this discourse could influence not only the refinement of future data collection methods but also the trust in national statistics and the subsequent policy decisions rooted in such data.