StatsSA Reevaluates Census Data, Delays Release of Key Indicators

Statistics South Africa (StatsSA) has recently taken the extraordinary step of withholding essential portions of the Census 2022 findings, scheduled for release later this month, due to concerns over data accuracy. The decision to not publish certain variables and themes, including pivotal information on employment, income, and mortality rates, underscores StatsSA's commitment to the integrity of its national statistical outputs. This measure follows an in-depth quality evaluation by the agency's specialists that identified reporting and coverage biases.

The 2022 Census, a massive undertaking for any statistical body, aimed to capture a detailed snapshot of South African society, informing policy decisions, economic plans, and social services. An immense 30% undercount and anomalies in some of the results sparked criticism from independent demographers, putting StatsSA under scrutiny. Amid such controversies, StatsSA has openly recognized its shortcomings, a refreshing example of accountable governance.

The importance of data on employment and income cannot be overstated as they are critical indicators of the country's economic health and inform a wide range of fiscal and social policies. Alarmingly, the income variable, one of the most sensitive and important in the census, was marred by a high occurrence of unspecified responses. Also of note, the labor and mortality data, essential for understanding the employment landscape and public health concerns, displayed significant biases that undermined their reliability.

Without reliable data, crafting effective government policies and strategies becomes exponentially more challenging. Recognizing the gravity of these deficiencies, StatsSA has decided to instead rely on alternative ongoing surveys, such as the five-yearly Income and Expenditure Survey and the Quarterly Labour Force Survey, for generating employment trends and related forecasts. The need for dependable data is critical as South Africa, like the rest of the world, navigates the tumultuous economic waters in the wake of the pandemic.

StatsSA aims to address these deficiencies and re-release the 2022 Census data by the end of August, following further data confrontation when the 2022 mortality and cause of death data become available. Evidently, the agency prioritizes accuracy over speed—a principled choice, as the implications of misinforming the public with erroneous statistics are far-reaching.

The StatsSA saga serves as a cautionary tale to statistical agencies worldwide about the perils of releasing premature data and the virtues of stringent data quality assurance. It is a stark reminder of the complex nature of conducting a national census and the need for rigorous methods to ensure the precision of the information upon which critical decisions are made.