ANC at a Crossroads: 112th Anniversary Amidst South Africa’s Electoral Uncertainty

The African National Congress (ANC), South Africa's ruling party since the dawn of democracy in 1994, is poised to commemorate its 112th anniversary. Celebrations are set to unfold at Mbombela Stadium in the Mpumalanga province, with President Cyril Ramaphosa, who doubles as the head of the ANC, geared up to address thousands of party members and supporters. In his annual speech, President Ramaphosa will delineate the party’s agenda for the forthcoming year.

As the country approaches a pivotal election anticipated to be held between May and August 2023, this anniversary is more than a mere festivity; it's a moment for introspection and strategizing by the party that once liberated South Africa from the clutches of apartheid under the legendary leadership of Nelson Mandela.

President Ramaphosa, in power since 2019 following the presidency of Jacob Zuma, is vying for a second term. However, he will be courting a disenchanted electorate, grappling with towering unemployment rates touching 32%, encompassing a staggering 60% of the youth. Service delivery failures and unfulfilled promises of a better life for the poor Black majority have gradually eroded the ANC’s image.

Moreover, the ANC has been embroiled in numerous corruption scandals that have tainted its reputation and leadership. The disillusionment among voters is not merely speculation, as electoral polls consistently indicate the once-dominant party may struggle to garner the critical 50% of the vote required to secure victory, a threshold it has never failed to surpass throughout its 30-year rule.

The economic plight is compounded by persistent power blackouts inflicted by Eskom, the nation’s primary electricity provider, contributing to the public's frustration. Political analysts like Dirk Kotze of the University of South Africa highlight that the ANC's significant threat is the public's growing mistrust, potentially leading to a watershed moment in South African politics.

The historical context of the ANC's dwindling support is embodied by the emergence of parties like the Congress of the People in 2008 and the Economic Freedom Fighters in 2013, which siphoned off a fraction of the ANC’s base. The trend continues with the formation of Umkhonto we Sizwe (Spear of the Nation), endorsed by former President Jacob Zuma, who holds substantial influence, especially in KwaZulu-Natal, his home province.

Zuma’s recent trials—for defying a court order and for alleged corruption in an arms deal—fan the flames of division within the party, with the potential to fragment its voter base further. The ANC faces the possibility of needing to form coalitions with opposition parties if its electoral strength wanes beneath the majority threshold.

The coming months are pivotal for the ANC and South Africa’s political landscape. The party that led the country out of apartheid is at a crossroads, challenged to reinvent itself and restore public faith amidst the harshest electoral conditions it has ever faced.