ANC's Dilemma: Disciplining Zuma May Strengthen His Narrative

In a bold, potentially game-changing move, former South African President Jacob Zuma has announced the formation of the Umkhonto We Sizwe MK party, a direct challenge to the ruling African National Congress (ANC) as South Africa prepares for a pivotal general election. This new party symbolizes not just a political maneuver in the upcoming 30th-anniversary election since the end of apartheid but also a significant trial for the ANC itself.

Launching the party in Soweto with just months before the elections, Zuma drew attention to the ANC's recent struggles with corruption, service delivery failures, and persistent power outages that have eroded its support base. However, Zuma's dual position as both a former and current member of the ANC creates an unprecedented Catch-22 for the party. This strategic position raises the question: how should the ANC approach discipline regarding one of its most prominent figures who now openly supports and even leads a rival party?

Indeed, Zuma's influence cannot be understated, particularly in regions like KwaZulu-Natal, where political analyst Prof Ntsikelelo Breakfast has indicated that Zuma commands more popular support than current President Cyril Ramaphosa. Breakfast suggests that while not all ANC members who support Zuma will defect, a significant number may be influenced by his call to vote for other parties, notably his MK party.

Nonetheless, Zuma's blatant 'ill-discipline' as perceived by the ANC, and his public proclamation that he won't campaign for the ANC nor vote for it in the upcoming elections, present the party's leadership with an intricate predicament. To discipline him now would validate his narrative of being pushed out, thereby reinforcing the sympathizers' belief in Zuma's claims of persecution and lack of democracy within the ANC's ranks.

On the other hand, the ANC's failure to address Zuma's actions could be interpreted as a sign of weakness or tacit approval, which may lead to further erosion of discipline and party unity. ANC spokesperson Mahlengi Bhengu-Motsiri's statement acknowledges Zuma's declaration without providing any hint at potential disciplinary actions, indicating the party's cautious approach to the issue.

This situation amplifies political analyst Daniel Silke's observation that Zuma aims to destabilize Ramaphosa's leadership and the ANC itself. By projecting the current ANC as a departure from the legacy of its revered former leaders—Luthuli, Tambo, and Mandela—Zuma seeks to position himself as the custodian of the "true" ANC, aligned with the so-called radical economic transformation (RET) movement. This strategy may result in weakening the ANC's stance so that it or a faction thereof can remake the party in a form that is more amenable to the Zuma faction's interests.

The implications for the ANC are profound. It now faces internal fragmentation, reduced electoral strength, especially in key regions like KZN, and the potential benefit to opposition parties due to a weakened ruling party. How the ANC responds to this challenge of Zuma's active campaigning for his MK party will be critical—whether to expel and risk splintering the party further or to tolerate and potentially undermine the party's authority.

The ANC's next steps will be closely scrutinized by both supporters and opponents alike, as the party contends with the strategic maneuverings of a past leader capable of influencing its future trajectory.